Heat-Pump Seasonal Heating Energy and Cost vs Gas and Resistance
The number that drives every electrification job: what a heat pump costs to run for a heating season, set beside the same load delivered by a gas furnace and by electric resistance. The seasonal load (MMBtu) divided by the HSPF (AHRI 210/240 Btu per Wh) priced at the electric rate, versus load / AFUE at the gas rate and resistance at COP 1. The same heat pump is a bargain in one utility territory and a premium in another, so the answer is a calculation from the local rates, not a slogan. HSPF is the rated regional value and the load comes from a Manual J. An operating-cost estimate, not a metered bill.
Formula and source
hp_kwh = seasonal_load_mmbtu x 1000 / hspf; hp_cost = hp_kwh x rate_kwh; resistance_kwh = seasonal_load_mmbtu x 1e6 / 3412; gas_therms = rate_therm > 0 ? seasonal_load_mmbtu x 10 / afue : null; gas_cost = rate_therm > 0 ? gas_therms x rate_therm : null.
The AHRI 210/240 HSPF definition (season Btu delivered per Wh input) and the standard fuel-cost comparison (gas therms = load / AFUE, resistance at COP 1), by name; the constants 1 MMBtu = 293.07 kWh, 3,412 Btu/kWh, and 100,000 Btu/therm are named.
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